Ethiopia circumvention: preliminary due mid-Dec

What Commerce opened

On July 17, 2026, Commerce published a notice of initiation at 91 FR 44821 (FR Doc. 2026-14416). A group of U.S. producers filed the request on May 12, 2026, alleging that cells and modules "completed in Ethiopia using parts and components manufactured in" China are circumventing the antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on Chinese solar cells, issued in December 2012.

The inquiry has two legs. It covers cells and modules completed in Ethiopia from Chinese parts and shipped from Ethiopia to the United States. It also covers cells completed in Ethiopia that are then assembled, "using additional inputs from China, into modules in Vietnam" and exported from Vietnam. So a module labelled as Vietnamese can fall inside it.

Commerce initiated on a "country-wide basis," which means the question is about the trade pattern, not one named company. Respondents will be picked from CBP import data.

How Commerce decides

The test is in section 781(b) of the Tariff Act, summarized in the notice. Commerce asks, among other things, whether the assembly or completion in the third country is "minor or insignificant" and whether the value of the Chinese content is "a significant portion" of the value of what is shipped to the United States. To judge "minor or insignificant" it looks at investment, research and development, the nature of the production process, the production facilities, and how much of the final value is added in the third country.

The dates

Under 19 CFR 351.226(e), the preliminary determination is due "no later than 150 days" after the initiation notice is published, and Commerce "may extend that deadline by no more than 90 additional days." The final determination is due within 300 days, extendable by no more than 65 days.

Counting from July 17, 2026, 150 days lands on December 14, 2026 and 300 days on May 13, 2027. That is our arithmetic. When we checked the Federal Register API on November 7, 2026, we found no notice postponing the preliminary determination.

Why entries are already exposed

This is the part that matters for anyone importing now. Under the notice and 19 CFR 351.226(l), if the preliminary determination is affirmative, Commerce will direct CBP to suspend liquidation and collect cash deposits on unliquidated entries made "on or after the date of the publication of the notice of initiation", that is, from July 17, 2026. Commerce may also reach back to entries made before initiation, though not before November 4, 2021, the date those rules took effect.

So a module from either route that entered after July 17 could pick up China AD/CVD cash deposits months after entry. The orders on India, Indonesia and Laos that we covered in our note on the orders are a separate case; this inquiry concerns the China orders.

What it means if you are buying modules

• Ask where the cells were made, and from what. Cells finished in Ethiopia from Chinese parts are the target, whether the module ships from Ethiopia or from Vietnam.
• Look at entries since July 17. If you or your supplier imported such product after that date, ask who carries the risk if cash deposits are applied after a preliminary affirmative determination.
• Put the risk in the contract. For orders landing in the coming months, agree in writing who pays any AD/CVD that results from the inquiry.
• Watch mid-December. The preliminary determination, or a notice extending it, should appear in the Federal Register around then. Imported modules also face the Section 232 price floor from December 4.

Being in a U.S. warehouse does not settle it here: an unliquidated entry made after July 17 by either route can still be affected, so ask your seller for the entry date and cell origin.